Kusukela ngoJulayi, amanani okushintshanisa i-RMB ogwini naphesheya kwezilwandle uma eqhathaniswa nedola laseMelika aphinde akhuphuka kakhulu, futhi afinyelela endaweni ephezulu yalokhu kuphinda kuphindeke ngo-Agasti 5. Phakathi kwawo, i-RMB yasogwini (CNY) yehle ngo-2.3% ukusuka endaweni ephansi ngoJulayi 24. Nakuba ihlehlile ngemva kokuhlinzwa okwalandela, kusukela ngo-August 20, izinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB nedola laseMelika lisanconywa ngo-2% kusukela ngo-July 24. Ngo-August 20, izinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB phesheya kwezilwandle uma liqhathaniswa nedola laseMelika liphinde lafinyelela iphuzu eliphezulu. ngo-Agasti 5, yehle ngo-2.3% ukusuka endaweni ephansi ngomhla ka-3 Julayi.
Uma sibheka phambili emakethe yesikhathi esizayo, ingabe izinga lokushintshanisa i-RMB uma liqhathaniswa nedola laseMelika lingena esiteshini esikhuphukayo? Sikholelwa ukuthi izinga lokushintshanisa le-RMB lamanje uma liqhathaniswa nedola laseMelika liwukwazisa okungenzi lutho ngenxa yokwehla komnotho wase-US kanye nokulindelwe kokwehliswa kwezinga lenzalo. Ngokombono womehluko wezinga lenzalo phakathi kweChina ne-United States, ubungozi bokwehla okukhulu kwe-RMB sebubuthakathaka, kodwa esikhathini esizayo, sidinga ukubona izimpawu zokuthuthuka komnotho wasekhaya, kanye nentuthuko amaphrojekthi amakhulu kanye namaphrojekthi amanje, ngaphambi kokuba izinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB ngokumelene nedola laseMelika lingene emjikelezweni wokubonga. Njengamanje, izinga lokushintshisana kwe-RMB uma liqhathaniswa nedola laseMelika cishe lizoshintsha kuzo zombili izinkomba.
Umnotho wase-US uyehla, futhi i-RMB ibonga nje.
Kusukela kudatha yezomnotho eshicilelwe, umnotho wase-US ubonise izimpawu ezisobala zokuba buthaka, okwake kwabangela ukukhathazeka kwezimakethe mayelana nokuwohloka komnotho wase-US. Kodwa-ke, uma sibheka izinkomba ezifana nokusetshenziswa kanye nemboni yesevisi, ubungozi bokuwohloka komnotho wase-US busephansi kakhulu, futhi idola laseMelika alikaze libe nenkinga yokushoda kwemali.
Imakethe yemisebenzi seyehlile, kodwa ngeke iwele ekuwohlokeni komnotho. Inani lemisebenzi emisha okungeyona eyezolimo ngoJulayi lehle kakhulu laya ku-114,000 inyanga nenyanga, futhi izinga lokuntuleka kwemisebenzi likhuphuke lafinyelela ku-4.3% ngaphezu kwalokho obekulindelekile, okubangele umkhawulo wokwehla komnotho "Sam Rule". Yize imakethe yemisebenzi ipholile kodwa isibalo sokudilizwa asikapholi, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokuthi isibalo sabantu abaqashiwe siyehla, okukhomba ukuthi umnotho usaqala ukuphola futhi awukakangeni enkingeni.
Izitayela zokuqashwa kwezimboni zase-US zokukhiqiza nezinkonzo zihlukene. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, kunengcindezi enkulu yokwehla komsebenzi wokukhiqiza. Uma sibheka inkomba yokuqashwa ye-PMI yokukhiqiza ye-US ISM, kusukela i-Fed yaqala ukunyusa amanani enzalo ekuqaleni kuka-2022, inkomba ibonise ukwehla. Kusukela ngoJulayi 2024, inkomba ibingu-43.4%, ukwehla okungamaphesenti angama-5.9 ukusuka enyangeni edlule. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukuqashwa embonini yezinsizakalo kuhlala kuqinile. Ngokubheka inkomba yokuqashwa ye-PMI engakhiqizi yase-US ISM, kusukela ngoJulayi 2024, inkomba ibingu-51.1%, ikhuphuke ngamaphesenti angu-5 ukusuka enyangeni edlule.
Ngokumelene nesizinda sokwehla komnotho wase-US, inkomba yedola laseMelika yehle kakhulu, idola laseMelika lehla kakhulu uma liqhathaniswa nezinye izimali, futhi izikhundla ezinde ze-hedge funds kwidola laseMelika zehla kakhulu. Idatha ekhishwe yi-CFTC ibonise ukuthi kusukela ngesonto lika-Agasti 13, isikhundla esiphezulu sesikhwama se-dollar yase-US sasiyinkatho engu-18,500 kuphela, futhi engxenyeni yesine ka-2023 yayingaphezu kuka-20,000 inkatho.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Sep-14-2024