Ngabe umjikelezo wokwazisa we-RMB uyaqalwa? (Isahluko 1)

Kusukela ngoJulayi, amazinga okushintshaniswa kwama-RMB aphesheya kwezilwandle abhekene ne-US Dollar abuye abukeze kakhulu, futhi ashaye iphuzu eliphakeme ngalesi sivumelwano esingu-60. Izinga lokushintshwa kwe-RMB elisogwini le-RMB elibhekene neDollar laseMelika futhi lishaye iphuzu eliphakeme ngo-Agasti 5, liyazisa ngo-2.3% ukusuka endaweni ephansi ngoJulayi 3.

Ubheke phambili emakethe yesikhathi esizayo, ingabe izinga lokushintshana nge-RMB lizomelana nedola lase-US Faka isiteshi esingaphezulu? Sikholwa ukuthi izinga lokushintshana kwe-RMB yamanje ngokumelene nedola laseMelika liyabonga nje ngokuncipha komnotho wase-US kanye nokulindelwe kwesilinganiso senzalo. Ngokombono wezinga lenzalo elehlukile phakathi kweChina ne-United States, ubungozi bokwehla okubukhali kwe-RMB buye buthaka, kepha ngokuzayo, ngaphambi kokuthuthuka kwamaphrojekthi amakhulu kanye namaphrojekthi wamanje, ngaphambi kokushintshana ngamaphrojekthi we-US azofaka umjikelezo wokwazisa. Njengamanje, isilinganiso sokushintshana kwe-RMB ngokumelene nedola laseMelika kungenzeka ukuthi siguqukele kuzo zombili izinkomba.

Umnotho wase-US wehlisa ijubane, futhi i-RMB iyazazisa kalula.
Ukusuka kwimininingwane yezomnotho eshicilelwe, umnotho wase-US ukhombisile izimpawu ezisobala zokwenza buthaka, okwake kwabangela ukukhathazeka kwemakethe ngokuwohloka komnotho wase-US. Kodwa-ke, ukwahlulela ngezinkomba ezifana nokusebenzisa kanye nomkhakha wenkonzo, ubungozi bokuwohloka komnotho wase-US busephansi kakhulu, futhi idola lase-US alizange libone ubunzima be-liquidity.

Imakethe yemisebenzi iyehlile phansi, kepha ngeke iwele ekunciphiseni. Inani lemisebenzi emisha engeyona yezolimo ngoJulayi yawa kakhulu ngenyanga eyi-114,000 enyangeni, futhi izinga lokuntuleka kwemisebenzi livuke laya ku-4.3% ngaphezulu kokulindelwe, kubangela umkhawulo womuntu ". Ngenkathi imakethe yemisebenzi sehlile, inani lama-layoffs alizange liphole phansi, ikakhulukazi ngoba isibalo sabantu abaqashiwe siyancipha, esibonisa ukuthi umnotho usezigabeni zokuqala zokwehla futhi akakafaki ukwehla komnotho.

Izitayela zokuqashwa ze-US ezenzayo kanye nezimboni zenkonzo ziyahlukahluka. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, kunengcindezi enkulu ekwehliseni umsebenzi wokukhiqiza. Ukwahlulela kusuka enkombeni yokuqashwa kwe-US ism ekhiqiza ama-PMI e-PMI, ngoba i-Fed yaqala ukukhulisa amanani enzalo ekuqaleni kuka-2022, inkomba ikhombisile ukuthambekela phansi. Kusukela ngoJulayi 2024, inkomba yayingu-43.4%, incipha ngamaphesenti angama-5.9 kusuka enyangeni edlule. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukuqashwa embonini yezinsizakalo kuhlala kuqinile. Ukubheka inkomba yokuqashwa ye-US ism okungeyona eyakha ama-PMI, kusukela ngoJulayi 2024, inkomba yayingama-51.1% amaphuzu amaphuzu kusuka enyangeni edlule.

Ngokuphikisana ne-backrop ye-slowdown emnothweni wase-US, i-US Dollar Index yawa ngamandla, idola laseMelika lehlile kakhulu ngokumelene nezinye zezimali, izikhundla zezimali ezinde e-US Dollar zehle kakhulu. Idatha ekhishwe yi-CFTC ikhombisile ukuthi kusukela ngesonto lika-Agasti 13, isikhundla eside se-Fund e-US Dollar sasingama-18,500 inkatho kuphela, kanti ngekota yesine ka-2023 kwakungama-20,000 amaningi.